Automotive Industry Market Growth forecast for 2024

Automotive Industry Market Growth in 2024: A Detailed Overview

As we look toward 2024, the automotive industry is navigating a complex landscape of recovery and transformation. According to S&P Global Mobility, the industry is forecasted to sell 88.3 million new vehicles worldwide in 2024, a 2.8% increase year-over-year. This growth is part of a recovery trajectory following the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions.

Key Highlights:

• Global Sales Forecast: The global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase year-over-year, continuing the recovery supported by pent-up consumer demand despite challenges like high vehicle pricing and credit conditions​.
• 2023 Performance: The full-year 2023 global light vehicle sales are projected to reach nearly 86.0 million units, an 8.9% increase from 2022 levels. This increase has been attributed to ongoing output gains from restocking inventories as supply chains normalize​.

• Regional Forecasts:

• Europe: For 2024, a forecast of 15.1 million units, up by 2.9% year-over-year, is expected, despite economic recession risks and other challenges​.
• United States: US sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level. The market, however, faces affordability issues due to high interest rates and tight credit conditions​.
• Mainland China: The 2024 forecast is at 26.4 million units, up 4.2%, with a focus on New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and improved affordability in the segment​.
• Electric Vehicle (EV) Trends: The sector is expected to continue its growth with nearly 100 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) models available by the end of 2024, doubling the number from 2022​. Global sales for BEVs are projected to post 13.3 million units for 2024, accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales​.
• Production Outlook: Global light vehicle production in 2023 is expected to finish at 89.8 million units, a 9.0% improvement over 2022 levels. However, a slight decline in production levels to 89.4 million units is forecasted for 2024 as the industry transitions to a more traditional demand-driven model​.
• Semiconductor Supply: While the industry has faced semiconductor supply challenges, forecasts do not foresee major chip supply problems in 2024 due to robust allocation and stockpiling by vehicle makers. However, 2025 might present challenges if non-automotive demand for semiconductors resurfaces strongly​.

Conclusion

The automotive industry in 2024 is expected to continue its path of recovery, driven by increasing consumer demand and the expansion of the electric vehicle market. However, the industry must navigate economic uncertainties, supply chain adjustments, and evolving consumer preferences. The focus on electric vehicles and the stabilization of the semiconductor supply are crucial elements shaping the industry's future.